Mirages Not Limited to Deserts

The NFL has an extremely long season. Don’t get me wrong, I love every game of it but it’s a long season. Being that the season is long, it leads fans and analysts to jump to snap decisions regarding the quality of teams well before all the evidence is in. I refer to these snap judgments as mirages meaning something appears which isn’t real. Every September NFL fans get many mirages both good and bad, let’s try to decipher which teams could be currently winning with smoke and mirrors and which teams should markedly improve over the next 3-months; always keeping in mind that the object is to be the best team in December and January, not in September.

With the preceding paragraph in mind, let’s take a minute and try to assimilate what we’ve seen thus far in 3-weeks that lead us to believe a team will either get worse or improve as the season moves along. First of all, I am a big effort guy- I love a team or player that gives outstanding effort. However, outstanding effort early in the year without equal talent will usually lead to a team that starts fast coming back to the pack. On the other side of the coin, you will see some very talented teams that make a ton of penalties and turnovers early in the year; the bad news is that penalties and turnovers will lead to losses; the good news is that this can be corrected.

I see two teams out there right now that I feel will come back to the pack over the coming months; Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Let me say, I believe both teams are significantly improved over their 2009 versions, however, Kansas City is not a 3-0 quality team and Tampa Bay isn’t as good as their 2-1 start would indicate. We got some inkling of Tampa’s lack of talent as they were undressed at home by Pittsburgh yesterday, 38-13. Kansas City does have nice club but they are closer to an 8-8 type team than the 13-3 team that this type of start would typically indicate. Look for both these clubs to slowly but surely begin to lose in the coming weeks. I expect Kansas City to get lit up in Indianapolis two-weeks from now, despite coming off a bye week. The Chiefs lack big-time playmakers on the outside thus I think they will struggle against better competition as the season wears on. Tampa Bay is playing a 2^nd year QB, Josh Freeman, who has immense talent but a propensity for big mistakes. The mistakes that your QB makes get magnified as the games get more meaningful throughout the season. I believe Tampa is more of a 7-9 type club this season.

There are two teams that I see becoming markedly better as the year moves forward. The first team is September’s perennial slow starter the San Diego Chargers. San Diego lost their first game at Kansas City in a close tussle. After waxing Jacksonville at home, the Chargers went up to Seattle yesterday and managed to lose 27-20 despite gaining 570 yards of offense vs. a Seattle team whose roster may not be as good as Alabama’s. The Chargers committed 5 turnovers, had over 100 yards of penalties and allowed not one but two, 100 yard kickoff returns by Seattle’s Leon Washington. San Diego gets starting LT Marcus McNeil back after the 6^th game as he finally signed a tender offer and is eligible to play after game number 6. This alone should help the offense and I expect at some point star WR Vincent Jackson will realize that with a potential lockout looming next year it might behoove him to make a few bucks this year so I expect him to sign as well. San Diego was 12-4 last season and their roster is littered with Pro Bowl players; this team will go on a run where they win 5 of 6 and before you know it, San Diego should be closer to an 11-5 team than the inverse.

The other team I expect to continually get better is the Dallas Cowboys. Listen, I always admit in these pieces where my rooting interests are, thus for the sake of full disclosure I am big Dallas fan. However, I try to call it as straight as I see it. Before Cowboys Nations begins putting Dallas back in the Super Bowl after their impressive win over a very good Houston Texans team in Houston yesterday; it will mean nothing if the Cowboys come off their bye week and lose at home to Tennessee. I don’t see the Cowboys losing at home after the bye week but it’s not as though they haven’t underachieved in recent history so it’s not beyond the realm of possibility. That being said, the Cowboys have an immensely talented roster, there is no denying that. Demarcus Ware is the game’s best player and he showed that yesterday sacking Matt Schaub three times. Romo is one of the top 6 or 7 triggermen in the game, Miles Austin is one of the top 4 or 5 WRs, Witten is perennial Pro Bowl TE and this rookie Dez Bryant is ridiculously good. The Cowboys lost their first two games due more to them being inept than the other team doing anything to them. Penalties, turnovers, poor play calling all led to Dallas losses to Washington and Chicago- all that can be corrected as evidenced yesterday in Houston. When Dallas plays a relatively clean game, they are as good as any team in this league thus the question becomes consistency. My guess it that like San Diego, Dallas is closer to an 11-5 team than a 5-11 team.

The beauty of an NFL season is that it’s a journey where we must wait for the answers we seek as football fans. Thus my recommendation is that you get a glass of water and try to stay cool because the mirages that appear in September begin to dissipate in October as reality sets back in.